Risk Analysis and Management of the BeppoSAX Reentry

This report presents the equatorial belt potentially affected by the impact on the ground of the BeppoSAX surviving fragments and a complete list of the countries or territories involved. The casualty expectancy concept is reviewed and applied to the BeppoSAX reentry, emphasizing the nature of the risk on the ground and in the air space. The potential hazard represented by the surviving fragments is discussed and the predictive data which will be available for civil protection purposes are presented in qualitative and quantitative terms. In particular, a risk time window of 40 minutes will be associated to each final trajectory segment spanning 20 degrees in longitude, in order to provide a simple time table, useful to plan any risk reduction measure deemed appropriate by the responsible territorial authority in the air or on the ground.