How to Exploit External Model of Data for Parameter Estimation?

Any cooperation in multiple-participant decision making (DM) relies on an exchange of individual knowledge pieces and aims. A general methodology of their rational exploitation without calling for an objective mediator is still missing. This paper proposes such a methodology in an important particular case in which a participant performs Bayesian parameter estimation and it is offered a model relating the observable data to their past history. The proposed solution is based on so called fully probabilistic design (FPD) of DM strategies. The result reduces to an ``ordinary" Bayesian estimation if the offered model is the sample probability density function (pdf), i.e., if it provides additional observations.