Analysis of Orbital Debris Mitigation Measures Based on the Semi-Deterministic Model SDM 4.0

The amount of space debris is steadily growing and represents an increasing hazard to manned and unmanned activities in space. A semi-deterministic model for space debris mitigation analysis (SDM 4.0) was developed at ISTI/CNR for the simulation of the long-term evolution of the space debris environment in order to validate concepts for space debris mitigation measures. The objective was to devise the necessary software tools and the related mathematical methods and algorithms. Realistic models for the launch traffic and the mitigation measures were established, and reliable orbit propagators which are appropriate for long-term integration have been analyzed, tested and applied. This comprehensive software tool, applicable from low up to super-synchronous Earth orbits, will allow ESA to contribute to the international efforts to analyse and define effective space debris mitigation measures. The first important practical application was in the framework of an international study, promoted by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC), on the stability of the future debris environment in low Earth orbit. The participating space agencies were ASI, ESA, ISRO, JAXA, NASA and the UK Space Agency.