Testing scenarios through case studies: examining the effectiveness of applying various assessments and monitoring approaches to manage the effects of hazardous substances in the marine environment

This report represents the final stage of a process which began with an assessment of the main pollution issues concern in 3 regional European seas (Baltic, Mediterranean and NE Atlantic), summarised in the group's first deliverable report (D4.1). A second report addressed the physical-chemical characteristics, biogeochemical behaviour and environmental pathways of those groups of pollutants identified as being of particular concern, on a regional basis (D4.2). This led to the selection of specific case studies and the development of conceptual models incorporating the main Drivers, Pressures and State changes, following the adoption of the DPSIR approach (Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response). The conceptual models were used to generate probabilistic models based on Bayesian Belief Networks (see section 1.2), these were populated with appropriate D-P-S data and tested by running a number of scenarios generated by Work Package 6 (section 1.3).