MyWave-D4.2a - Proposal of metrics for user focused verification of deterministic wave prediction systems

Tasks in MyWave WP4 will define operational verification methods that can be robustly applied within a wave element of a Marine Core Service (MCS). The purpose of this document is to propose metrics that provide 'user focused' verification data for deterministic forecasts, i.e. information that describes model performance or uncertainty associated with forecasts in an accessible manner. The document also describes a process of user consultation that will be used to ratify the metrics and presents initial findings from this process. Metrics are identified in two ways. The purpose of the metric, i.e. the information that will be portrayed to the user, will be defined in each case and the metrics will also be discussed relative to the reference data required. Due to limitations in available observations a truly reliable analysis for waves is not available (Lefevre and Aouf, 2012), so the scope of this document is limited to reference data comprising observations only. Metrics are categorised with respect to reference data as 'common' where data from in-situ and remote sensed sources can be used interchangeably, 'in-situ based' where additional features of in-situ datasets can be applied, and 'satellite based' where additional features of satellite remote sensed data can be applied.