The Pan European Energy Model and Scenarios of the EC-NEEDS Project

The CNR –IMAA contribution to the 2007 IEA OECD ETSAP news concerned the activities performed by the Research Stream “Modelling Pan European Energy Scenarios” in the framework of the Integrated Project NEEDS, in which some ETSAP partners are involved. These activities have been addressed to three main issues: •Implementation of TIMES- based energy system models for 28 European countries and their harmonisation into a multi-region Pan EU modelling platform •Definition of the policy scenarios to be examined at Pan EU level •Integration of data and models, with particular concern to LCA and ExternE. As concerns the TIMES modelling activities, the 28 country models were implemented taking into account the main energy – environmental policies at national level and the Business As Usual –country scenarios have been analysed (time horizon 2000 – 2050). In this framework, particular attention was given to the implementation of a reference energy technology database that includes a fairly complete set of technologies with default technological and economical parameters to be used to perform any model development or scenario analysis. As concerns the scenarios definition, the topics addressed, in agreement with the stakeholders, were the environmental issues like climate policy and local pollution that are linked to energy use and energy policies aimed at reducing the EU-dependency on energy imports. Four main scenarios were thus defined: In the framework of a multi-lateral integration of data, the input-output information flows among the Research Streams were defined. In particular, a common set of technologies for the electricity generation sector was agreed, to be used as input to the TIMES modelling work, including besides the usual techno-economic data, additional information concerning LCA and externalities for the technologies concerned.The work in progress is addressed to the implementation of the Business as Usual Scenario for the Pan EU model and to the operative integration of LCA/ExternE parameters (national case studies and Pan EU model). The main expected results are concerned with the assessment of target-based policies at national as well at EU level and identification of regulatory instruments and price mechanisms for their implementation, the development of coherent long-term strategies and sound climate protection policies at Pan-European level, the evaluation of the expected long-term results of LCA and the internalisation level of external costs in order to reach policy goals.