BioScore 2.0 is a model which supports the analysis of potential impacts of future changes in human-induced pressures on European terrestrial biodiversity (e.g. mammals, vascular plants, breeding birds and butterflies). The model is based on large databases on species occurrences in Europe. The relationship between species observations and pressures is calculated through statistical analysis. By using output of models on future changes in pressures, BioScore 2.0 can be used for calculating changes in species occurences. In this way, BioScore 2.0 can be used for assessing policy plans or scenarios on the achievement of European biodiversity goals and on impacts of climate change. It models changes in both species abundance and habitat quality. This is of interest to policymakers and scientists. BioScore 1.0, released in 2009, resulted from a research project funded by EC DG Research and Technological Development, FP6 (www.bioscore.eu). The project was coordinated by the European Centre for Nature Conservation (ECNC) and executed by a consortium of nine partners. PBL has been developing an improved version of the model (BioScore 2.0), together with European Bird Census Council (Sovon), Butterfly Conservation Europe (De Vlinderstichting), European Vegetation Survey and Sapienza University. The driving variables included are climate change, land-use change, and local environmental pressures. The last include air pollution through nitrogen and sulphur deposition, agricultural intensification, water stress, habitat fragmentation, forest and nature management, and disturbance caused by roads and urbanisation. The model assesses the impacts on probability of occurrence for 1400 policy-relevant species, for each 5 x 5 km grid cell. Model calculations are executed in five consecutive steps. In the first step, climate, elevation and soil maps are used to project the distribution range of each species. The second step uses land-cover information to determine suitable habitats, per species, within their distribution range. In the third step, the relationships between local pressures (e.g. water stress and habitat fragmentation) and species occurrences are derived. In the fourth step, the relationships between local pressures and species occurrence are combined with species distribution ranges and species habitat suitability, in order to produce probability maps of species occurrence. In the final step, these maps are aggregated into species and ecosystem indicators. This report provides detailed descriptions of the calculation procedures in the five steps and the data used in each step. It discusses the quality and applicability of BioScore 2.0.
BIOSCORE 2.0 - A species-by-species model to assess anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial biodiversity in Europe
Luca Santini;
2016
Abstract
BioScore 2.0 is a model which supports the analysis of potential impacts of future changes in human-induced pressures on European terrestrial biodiversity (e.g. mammals, vascular plants, breeding birds and butterflies). The model is based on large databases on species occurrences in Europe. The relationship between species observations and pressures is calculated through statistical analysis. By using output of models on future changes in pressures, BioScore 2.0 can be used for calculating changes in species occurences. In this way, BioScore 2.0 can be used for assessing policy plans or scenarios on the achievement of European biodiversity goals and on impacts of climate change. It models changes in both species abundance and habitat quality. This is of interest to policymakers and scientists. BioScore 1.0, released in 2009, resulted from a research project funded by EC DG Research and Technological Development, FP6 (www.bioscore.eu). The project was coordinated by the European Centre for Nature Conservation (ECNC) and executed by a consortium of nine partners. PBL has been developing an improved version of the model (BioScore 2.0), together with European Bird Census Council (Sovon), Butterfly Conservation Europe (De Vlinderstichting), European Vegetation Survey and Sapienza University. The driving variables included are climate change, land-use change, and local environmental pressures. The last include air pollution through nitrogen and sulphur deposition, agricultural intensification, water stress, habitat fragmentation, forest and nature management, and disturbance caused by roads and urbanisation. The model assesses the impacts on probability of occurrence for 1400 policy-relevant species, for each 5 x 5 km grid cell. Model calculations are executed in five consecutive steps. In the first step, climate, elevation and soil maps are used to project the distribution range of each species. The second step uses land-cover information to determine suitable habitats, per species, within their distribution range. In the third step, the relationships between local pressures (e.g. water stress and habitat fragmentation) and species occurrences are derived. In the fourth step, the relationships between local pressures and species occurrence are combined with species distribution ranges and species habitat suitability, in order to produce probability maps of species occurrence. In the final step, these maps are aggregated into species and ecosystem indicators. This report provides detailed descriptions of the calculation procedures in the five steps and the data used in each step. It discusses the quality and applicability of BioScore 2.0.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
