Towards a software to measure the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on Italian deaths

The purpose of the software is to provide a tool for comparison between the number of official deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the total number of deaths recorded in Italy during the same period. The reference period refers to the months of March, April, May and June 2020. The software consists of four modules. The first module allows, in the first place, the processing of the official dataset provided by ISTAT, relating to the deaths that occurred in Italy from 2015 to 2019, in order to create a predictive model for the period 2020. The prediction obtained from the model, in referring to the year 2020, is then compared with the deaths from COVID-19 confirmed and disseminated by the Italian Civil Protection and with the total deaths from ISTAT registered in the year 2020. The second module instead elaborates the dataset relating to deaths that occurred in Italy from 2015 to 2019 for 7.357 municipalities and creates a predictive model for the period 2020. Also in this case, the prediction obtained from the model, with reference to the year 2020, is compared with the deaths from COVID-19 and with the total deaths recorded in the year 2020. The third module elaborates the ISTAT dataset in order to obtain the provinces for which deaths have been recorded from each municipality that constitutes them. With reference to them, the predictive model for the period 2020 is created and the prediction obtained is compared with the deaths from COVID-19 and with the total deaths recorded in the aforementioned provinces. The fourth and last module carries out the analysis of data at the regional level, creating a predictive model for each region. Subsequently, the prediction in reference to the year 2020 is compared with the deaths from COVID-19 and the total deaths recorded by the region itself.