Regional migration and population scenarios

This deliverable describes the work involved in the regional projection phase of FUME. The regional projection model is the link between on the one hand the national population scenarios, which are fed by the global migration scenarios, and on the orther hand the spatial models at grid level of the respective cites and urban regions of Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Rome and Krakow. The model uses is a bi-regional model with urban region / city and the rest of the country as the two regions. The deliverable describes the input data for the regional models, which is different for each country, due to the available data infrastructure of each country, the parameters of the subnational components of the projection models, the scenarios used, and their outcomes. Results of the descriptive analysis of the Netherlands and Denmark data show that the dimensions of level of education and country of birth are associated with large variation in demographic intensities. For instance, higher educated have higher birth rates, lower mortality, and higher internal and external migration propensities. In addition, there is substantial variation by country of birth as well. The projection model takes these variations into account, as well as the differences between the two regions.