In this document are reported the main steps and outcomes of the 12-month collaboration between DXT and CNR-ISAC whose main goal was to carry out research aiming at improving the confidence in medium range temperature forecasts over Europe. The study was carried out using 20-year ECMWF hindcasts issued twice a week on the extended winter, considered to be a good benchmark dataset prior to prospective testing on ECMWF operational forecasts, which have much larger ensemble but fewer years available. After a first phase devoted to a reforecast verification activity, the work focused on Euro- Atlantic weather regimes as possible tools to identify conditions leading to enhanced predictive skill. A method based on the WR approach is presented together with a first analysis of its application.
Report DXT-ISAC 2020-2021
2021
Abstract
In this document are reported the main steps and outcomes of the 12-month collaboration between DXT and CNR-ISAC whose main goal was to carry out research aiming at improving the confidence in medium range temperature forecasts over Europe. The study was carried out using 20-year ECMWF hindcasts issued twice a week on the extended winter, considered to be a good benchmark dataset prior to prospective testing on ECMWF operational forecasts, which have much larger ensemble but fewer years available. After a first phase devoted to a reforecast verification activity, the work focused on Euro- Atlantic weather regimes as possible tools to identify conditions leading to enhanced predictive skill. A method based on the WR approach is presented together with a first analysis of its application.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
