Deliverable 4.3.5- Activity 4 - Biodiversity mainstreaming in Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP4BIODIVERSITY). Tasks 4.3.5 Analysis of sectors of the blue economy, through the identification of indicators and impact assessment

The report introduces a socio-economic assessment framework for Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) by developing a sectorally disaggregated, multi-regional Supply and Use Table (SUT) model (Kowalewski, 2015; Kronenberg, 2009), specifically tailored to the regional blue economy. Through the construction of a Blue Economy Satellite Account that integrates both national and regional data, the analysis offers a granular representation of intersectoral linkages and spatial dynamics across three pilot areas: the Northern Adriatic Sea (NAS), the Ligurian and Northern Tyrrhenian Sea (NTS); and the Strait of Sicily (SoS). A key component of the project's approach to exploring and proposing pathways for integrating biodiversity into MSP is the construction and analysis of future scenarios concerning the evolution of both the environmental protection system and maritime uses (Task 4.4). To this end, three distinct scenarios have been developed, each aligned with the strategic objectives of the Italian Maritime Spatial Plan, as formalized by Ministerial Decree No. 237 of 25 September 2024: • Slow pace scenario (SP): Regional development continues along current trajectories, characterized by a slow uptake of innovation and a limited emphasis on the protection and conservation of marine ecosystems. This scenario reflects the continuation of existing policies and regulatory frameworks, with minimal additional environmental safeguards. • Nature@Work scenario (NW): Grounded in the precautionary principle, this scenario assumes a lower tolerance for the risk associated with interactions among maritime activities. It prioritizes the prevention of negative impacts on marine ecosystems through the expansions of existing marine protected areas and the implementation of stringent measures to protect, conserve, and restore valuable and vulnerable marine habitats. • Blue Development scenario (BD): This scenario envisions accelerated innovation across blue economy sectors, accompanied by a higher acceptance of the risk of interaction between activities. Emphasis is placed on 'building with nature' solutions, enable to promote synergies between blue economy activities and ecosystem conservation. These solutions aim to foster a more sustainable and positive interaction between maritime uses and protected marine environments.