IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GRAPEVINE (VITIS VINIFERA L.) AT REGIONAL SCALE: PHENOLOGY, YIELD AND BIOTIC STRESS RESPONSES

Climate change is expected to have important impacts on different economic sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, energy consumptions, tourism, etc.). Agricultural sector is expected to be particularly exposed to climate change, since animal and crop growth are largely determined by the weather conditions during their life cycles. However, climate change is likely to affect agricultural systems very differently in various parts of Europe. In northern areas climate change may primarily have positive effects through increases in productivity and in the range of species grown, although there may be negative effects of agricultural on e.g. the water quality of surface waters. In southern areas the disadvantages will predominate with lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. Thus, assessment of the impact of climate change for crops like grapevine that a very important social, economic, cultural and tourist role in many Mediterranean areas (e.g. Tuscany Region, Italy) may be included in the future plan for the development of rural areas. In this work, climate change impact on grapevine was assessed in Tuscany Region (Central Italy) by coupling crop growth and disease simulation models and the results of a statistical downscaling over the regional meteorological network (Fig. 1). Forcing factors, provided by General Circulation Model (GCM) HadCM3 for the period 1990-2100, drove minimum and maximum temperature, rainfall and radiation (Tmin, Tmax, R and RAD respectively) downscaling procedure for A2 and B2 greenhouse gases emission scenarios.