The predictability of the plankton ecosystem is limited by the inter-annual variation of environmental variables and of the demographies of its populations.We have investigated the sensitivity of that inter-annual variability to three kinds of fluid motion in the upper ocean: (1) turbulence in the mixing layer, (2) advection by the mean circulation, and (3) fluctuations in the ocean circulation. We present evidence that suggests predictability is not limited by chaotic instability when the simulation is based on the Lagrangian Ensemble version of individual-based modelling. Predictability is limited by the use of pseudo-random numbers to parametrize the displacement of plankters by turbulence, and the injection of nutrients into the euphotic zone by mesoscale upwelling.
HOW FLUID MOTION AFFECTS THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE OCEAN ECOSYSTEM
2004
Abstract
The predictability of the plankton ecosystem is limited by the inter-annual variation of environmental variables and of the demographies of its populations.We have investigated the sensitivity of that inter-annual variability to three kinds of fluid motion in the upper ocean: (1) turbulence in the mixing layer, (2) advection by the mean circulation, and (3) fluctuations in the ocean circulation. We present evidence that suggests predictability is not limited by chaotic instability when the simulation is based on the Lagrangian Ensemble version of individual-based modelling. Predictability is limited by the use of pseudo-random numbers to parametrize the displacement of plankters by turbulence, and the injection of nutrients into the euphotic zone by mesoscale upwelling.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.