Stability of the future LEO environment

This work summarizes the results of the AI 27.1 of the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). The results of six different evolution models are compared to assess the long term stability of the space debris environment in Low Earth Orbit. The results clearly indicate that even with a good implementation of the commonly adopted mitigation measures, the LEO debris population is expected to increase in the next 200 years. The population growth is primarily driven by collisions between 700 and 1000 km altitudes. To better limit the growth of the future debris population and to reduce collision activities in LEO new mitigation measures, such as active debris removal, should be considered.