Comparative Delphi report

The paper presents the results of a Europe-wide research project based on a policy-Delphi, whose aim was to design population and society scenarios up to 2030. The policy-Delphi is a research method particularly suitable to allow experts, working independently, to act as a whole while dealing with complex problems. We used the Delphi technique as a method of social construction of scenarios in the field of population and welfare polices. Three main issues were dealt with in terms of policy developments: population ageing, family and fertility and gender roles. Scenarios were designed following the inputs, comments and suggestions provided by the 15/20 "experts" selected in each country ( for a total of 250 experts) who collectively contribute to create the scenarios through an iterative innovative multi-method approach which integrates Delphi, Appreciative Inquiry and SWOT analysis. Experts - who are strictly anonymous - are all influential persons who may well contribute to re-shape the future.