Assessing exposure of human and ecological values to wildfire in Sardinia, Italy

We used simulation modelling to analyse spatial variation in wildfire exposure relative to key social andeconomic features on the island of Sardinia, Italy. Sardinia contains a high density of urban interfaces, recreational valuesand highly valued agricultural areas that are increasingly being threatened by severe wildfires. Historical fire data andwildfire simulations were used to estimate burn probabilities, flame length and fire size. We examined how these riskfactors varied among and within highly valued features located on the island. Estimates of burn probability excluding nonburnablefuels, ranged from 0-1.92 X 10^-3, with a mean value of 6.48 X 10^-5. Spatial patterns in modelled outputs werestrongly related to fuel loadings, although topographic and other influences were apparent. Wide variation was observedamong the land parcels for all the key values, providing a quantitative approach to inform wildfire risk managementactivities.