We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the underlying contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and can move on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1) during the 2009/2010 season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters.
A Stochastic Lattice-Gas Model for Influenza Spreading
A Fierro
2013
Abstract
We construct a stochastic SIR model for influenza spreading on a D-dimensional lattice, which represents the underlying contact network of individuals. An age distributed population is placed on the lattice and can move on it. The displacement from a site to a nearest neighbor empty site allows individuals to change the number and identities of their contacts. The model is validated against the age-distributed Italian epidemiological data for the influenza A(H1N1) during the 2009/2010 season, with sensible predictions for the epidemiological parameters.File in questo prodotto:
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