Evaluation of firm R&D and innovation support: new indicators and the ex-ante prediction of ex-post additionality

This paper presents a comprehensive logical framework for designing ex-post evaluation of corporate R&D and innovation (RDI) policies, which logically connects: actors' behaviour, indicators, ex-post (counterfactual) evaluation and ex-ante prediction of firm (R&D) additionality potential. The paper proposes two ways to improve on the methods currently used in the evaluation literature. On the one hand, it suggests some new indicators related to firm 'additionality potential' by looking at the conditions enabling increasing returns of R&D to public subsidies. On the other hand, it provides public agencies with a procedure - based on an econometric/counterfactual approach - to obtain an ex-ante synthetic measure of the (ex-post) R&D additionality capacity of firms, rooted in the literature on credit-risk assessment. We will discuss this method at length, also by highlighting its critical aspects.