Uncertainties in modeling heterogeneous chemistry and Arctic ozone depletion in the winter 2009/2010

Stratospheric chemistry and denitrification are simulated for the Arctic winter 2009/2010 with the Lagrangian Chemistry and Transport Model ATLAS. A number of sensitivity runs is used to explore the impact of uncertainties in chlorine activation and denitrification on the model results. In particular, the efficiency of chlorine activation on different types of liquid aerosol versus activation on nitric acid trihydrate clouds is examined. Additionally, the impact of changes in reaction rate coefficients, in the particle number density of polar stratospheric clouds, in supersaturation, temperature or the extent of denitrification is investigated. Results are compared to satellite measurements of MLS and ACE-FTS and to in-situ measurements onboard the Geophysica aircraft during the RECONCILE measurement campaign. It is shown that even large changes in the underlying assumptions have only a small impact on the modeled ozone loss, even though they can cause considerable differences in chemical evolution and denitrification. In addition, it is shown that chlorine activation on liquid aerosols alone is able to explain the observed magnitude and morphology of the mixing ratios of active chlorine, reservoir gases and ozone.