Benford's analysis is applied to the recurrence times of approximately 17,000 seismic events in different geological contexts of Italy over the last 6 years, including the Mt. Etna volcanic area and the seismic series associated with the destructiveMw 6.3, 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. A close conformity to Benford's law and a power-law probability distribution for the recurrence times of consecutive events is found, as typical of random multiplicative processes. The application of Benford's law to the recurrence event times in seismic series of specific seismogenic regions represents a novel approach, which enlarges the occurrence and relevance of Benfordlike asymmetries, with implications on the physics of natural systems approaching a power law behaviour. Moreover, we propose that the shift from a close conformity of Benford's law to Brownian dynamics, observed for time separations among nonconsecutive events in the study seismic series, may be ruled by a periodical noise factor, such as the effects of Earth tides on seismicity tuning.

Applying Benford's law to time series analysis of seismic clusters

SOTTILI G;GIACCIO B;MESSINA P
2012

Abstract

Benford's analysis is applied to the recurrence times of approximately 17,000 seismic events in different geological contexts of Italy over the last 6 years, including the Mt. Etna volcanic area and the seismic series associated with the destructiveMw 6.3, 2009 L'Aquila earthquake. A close conformity to Benford's law and a power-law probability distribution for the recurrence times of consecutive events is found, as typical of random multiplicative processes. The application of Benford's law to the recurrence event times in seismic series of specific seismogenic regions represents a novel approach, which enlarges the occurrence and relevance of Benfordlike asymmetries, with implications on the physics of natural systems approaching a power law behaviour. Moreover, we propose that the shift from a close conformity of Benford's law to Brownian dynamics, observed for time separations among nonconsecutive events in the study seismic series, may be ruled by a periodical noise factor, such as the effects of Earth tides on seismicity tuning.
2012
Istituto di Geologia Ambientale e Geoingegneria - IGAG
Seismic hazard
Tidal frequencies
Random multiplicative process
Random additive process
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14243/244125
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