Wildfire Occurrence: Integrated Model for Risk Analysis and Operative Suppression Aspects Management

Generally forest fires are related to human activities and need an effective fire prevention and suppression organization, based on a deep knowledge of the territory, fire behaviour and suppression system resources network. To organise monitoring, prevention and fire fighting operations, the knowledge of the risk level for different areas is important. To evaluate the probability that a forest fire occurs and to organise prevention and management of fire fighting activities, both simple and easy-to-use risk and operational difficulty indices were implemented. CNR-IBIMET and DISTAF Dept., on commitment of Tuscany Region, developed a multistep process for the evaluation of the risk, that can be used to assess land planning and to organise seasonal fire fighting resources. This model is called Final Risk Index (FRI); it is the result of the combination of the following two indices, which are initially developed separately. The concerned indices are the Global Risk Index (GRI), and Operational Difficulty Index in Fire Fighting (ODIF). The fire risk index processes different parameters to generate two hazards: static and dynamic, merged to obtain the Global Risk Index (GRI). It is very helpful to estimate the probability of forest fire occurrence, but it does not provide information on forest fire extinction difficulties. The operational difficulty index in fire fighting (ODIF) resumes all the factors affecting fire fighting activity by air and by ground and suggests the extinction efficiency of forest fires in a given area. Thus FRI improves aspects of the fire prevention planning, focused to the needs of a public operative structure. The objective was modelling the links between the main components in ignition and fire fighting actions to produce an easy to use tool to face the emergences, also foreseeing forest fires regime changes in the coming decades.