The electricity market is a very peculiar market due to the large variety of phenomena that can affect the spot price. However, this market still shows many typical features of other speculative (commodity) markets like, for instance, data clustering and mean reversion. We apply the diffusion entropy analysis (DEA) to the Nordic spot electricity market (Nord Pool). We study the waiting time statistics between consecutive spot price spikes and find it to show anomalous scaling characterized by a decaying power law. The exponent observed in data follows a quite robust relationship with the one implied by the DEA analysis. In terms of the DEA we also revisit topics like clustering, mean-reversion and periodicities. We finally propose a GARCH inspired model but for the price itself. Models in the context of stochastic volatility processes appear under this scope to have a feasible description.

Entropy of the Nordic electricity market: anomalous scaling, spikes, and mean-reversion

L Palatella;
2006

Abstract

The electricity market is a very peculiar market due to the large variety of phenomena that can affect the spot price. However, this market still shows many typical features of other speculative (commodity) markets like, for instance, data clustering and mean reversion. We apply the diffusion entropy analysis (DEA) to the Nordic spot electricity market (Nord Pool). We study the waiting time statistics between consecutive spot price spikes and find it to show anomalous scaling characterized by a decaying power law. The exponent observed in data follows a quite robust relationship with the one implied by the DEA analysis. In terms of the DEA we also revisit topics like clustering, mean-reversion and periodicities. We finally propose a GARCH inspired model but for the price itself. Models in the context of stochastic volatility processes appear under this scope to have a feasible description.
2006
Istituto dei Sistemi Complessi - ISC
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14243/250395
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