Role of Climate and Land Use Variations on the Occurrence of Damaging Hydrogeological Events in Apulia (Southern Italy)

The aim of this work is to present a methodology, based on the use of correlation, cross-correlation and trend analysis, which analyses monthly climatic data (rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, and temperature) from 1877 to 2008, in order to characterise the climate variations, particularly in terms of rainfall, and the effects on the occurrence trend of Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs), floods and landslides. The proposed methodology consists of four phases. The first two phases concern the data collection and the creation of the climate and DHE databases, the third phase of work involves the analysis of data previously collected and the last part, not yet finished, is relative to the study of land use variations. This methodology was applied to a southern Italian region (Apulia) frequently hit by flood and landslide events. Despite the decreasing trend of rainfall and rainfall intensity and the increasing trend of temperatures and wet days, there is an increasing trend of DHE occurrence, which might related to the negative effect of anthropogenic activities in landslide-prone areas. The preliminary analysis on land use variations confirmed the increase of urban areas in the Apulia region from the 1959 to the 2006.