We review and compare four broad categories of modelling approaches currently used to shed light on the factors responsible for changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources. Spatially explicit model categories included: 1) bioclimate envelope and other statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and future models must be able to examine interacting factor affecting living marine resources such as i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication (hypoxia and increased turbidity), iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and iv) reductions in biomass of stocks / populations due to commercial exploitation (fisheries). Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. Statistical (correlative) approaches models are needed to detect / project patterns but will not advance a cause-and-effect understanding of the impacts of multiple pressures. A step change is needed in current techniques and formulations to produce models striving for realism in aspects of individual physiology shaping behaviour, species life history strategies, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales need will be critical for advancing predictive capacity. In many cases, it will not be sufficient to couple existing models but to create novel formulations, particularly if we wish to address the key issue such as the adaptive capacity of species / groups and ecosystems. End-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) of various complexity offer the best opportunities to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources as well as the costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies and greater insight can be gained from assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.
Understanding and Projecting Changes in the Distribution and Productivity of Living Marine Resources: A Critical Review of Modelling Approaches
Andrea Cucco;Paolo Domenici;Matteo Sinerchia;
2015
Abstract
We review and compare four broad categories of modelling approaches currently used to shed light on the factors responsible for changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources. Spatially explicit model categories included: 1) bioclimate envelope and other statistical species distribution models, 2) physiology-based, biophysical models of single life stages or the whole life cycle of species, 3) food web models, and 4) end-to-end models. Single pressures are rare and future models must be able to examine interacting factor affecting living marine resources such as i) climate-driven changes in temperature regimes and acidification, ii) reductions in water quality due to eutrophication (hypoxia and increased turbidity), iii) the introduction of alien invasive species, and iv) reductions in biomass of stocks / populations due to commercial exploitation (fisheries). Advancing predictive capacity of changes in distribution and productivity of living marine resources requires explicit modelling of biological and physical mechanisms. Statistical (correlative) approaches models are needed to detect / project patterns but will not advance a cause-and-effect understanding of the impacts of multiple pressures. A step change is needed in current techniques and formulations to produce models striving for realism in aspects of individual physiology shaping behaviour, species life history strategies, as well as trophodynamic interactions occurring at different spatial scales need will be critical for advancing predictive capacity. In many cases, it will not be sufficient to couple existing models but to create novel formulations, particularly if we wish to address the key issue such as the adaptive capacity of species / groups and ecosystems. End-to-end models (e.g., physics to fish to human sectors) of various complexity offer the best opportunities to assess how multiple pressures may interact to cause changes in living marine resources as well as the costs and trade-offs of different spatial management strategies and greater insight can be gained from assessing model structural uncertainty through biological ensemble modelling.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
