Mapping the vulnerability for evacuation of the Campi Flegrei territorial system in case of a volcanic unrest

Over the past few decades, intense urban expansion has occurred over the Campi Flegrei territorial system without considering the volcanic risk. In this active volcanic area, where a short period evacuation could be necessary, the emergency management cannot be based solely on hazard-related information. The territorial and social features must also be considered. In this framework, the main purpose of this research is to point out the seriousness of the present setting of the Campi Flegrei territorial system in case an evacuation is necessary. Following the concept of regional evacuation, the zone to be involved in emergency planning was identified as the whole of the area threatened by the volcanic events of the past 10 ka. Inside this area the spatial relation between the resident distribution and the outflows of roads, railway stations and harbours, to facilitate evacuation, was investigated. A spatial relational GIS-based procedure was used to draw the territorial system vulnerability map, depicting the zones with different capabilities to support the evacuation of residents in case of volcanic activity. Based on the concept that people could leave the dangerous area by the means of transport supplied by Civil Protection, and using the threshold value of over-crowding of 0.70 people/m(2), we identified the collection areas for residents to be immediately evacuated in case of volcanic unrest, and five macrozones displaying different capabilities to cope with an emergency phase.