Parapenaeus longirostris (Lucas, 1846) an early warning indicator species of global warming in the central Mediterranean Sea

To test this hypothesis we investigated the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) on density and distribution of P. longirostris by means of general additive models (GAMs). Two different models were developed for the whole stock and for the recruits (CL < 20 mm) using time series of MEDITS (International bottom trawl survey in the Mediterranean) survey density indices (n km-2) covering the period 1995-2010. Predictors included were geographical coordinates, quarterly averaged minimum SST, sampling depth and year. Spawners density was included as predictor into the GAM for recruits. The best GAM for the whole stock explained 67.1% of the total deviance, showing a clear increase in density in concomitance with the expansion of the stock northward. We found a significant positive effect of the min SST of all seasons, as expected considering that P. longirostris spawn all year round, with the highest influence played by summer min SST, either in the same or previous year. The best model for recruits explained 64.9% of the total deviance. Recruitment increased linearly with the density of spawners showing a positive temporal trend and an expansion northward. The observed trend in recruitment appeared significantly linked to minimum SST in summer and during the autumn of the previous year, with a positive effect on shrimp density over 23.5 °C and 14 °C respectively. The climate-related changes in recruitment appeared to be the key process driving the dynamics of the stock, involving either higher production or survival in the planktonic stages, or owing to changes in the quality/quantity of nursery habitats.