Calibration and validation of rockfall modelling at regional scale: application along a roadway in Mallorca (Spain) and organization of its management

The Tramuntana range, in the northwestern sector of the island of Mallorca (Balearic Islands, Spain), is frequently affected by rockfalls which have caused significant damage, mainly along the road network. In this work, we present the procedure we have applied to calibrate and validate rockfall modelling in this region, using 103 cases of the available detailed rockfall inventory (630 rockfall events collected since the eighteenth century). We have exploited STONE (Guzzetti et al. 2002), a GIS-based rockfall simulation software which computes 2D and 3D rockfall trajectories starting from a DTM and maps of the dynamic rolling friction coefficient and of the normal and tangential energy restitution coefficients. The appropriate identification of these parameters determines the accuracy of the simulation. To calibrate them, we have selected 40 rockfalls along the range which include a wide variety of outcropping lithologies. Coefficients values have been changed in numerous attempts in order to select those where the extent and shape of the simulation matched the field mapping. Best results were summarized with the average statistical values for each parameter and for each geotechnical unit, determining that mode values represent more precisely the data. Initially, for the validation stage, 10 well-known rockfalls exploited in the calibration phase have been selected. Confidence tests have been applied to their modelling results taking into account not only the success but also the mistakes. The best accuracy is obtained when the rockfall has a preferential trajectory and worse results when the rockfall follows two or more trajectories. Additionally, the greater the rockfall runout length, the less precise the simulation is. We have further validated the calibrated parameters along the Maroad (111 km), the main transportation corridor in the range, using 63 rockfall events that occurred during the past 18 years along the road. Of the rockfalls where source areas were properly identified, 81.5 % are well represented by STONE modelling, as the travel paths and the depositional areas are successfully ascertained. Results of the analysis have been used by the Road Maintenance Service of Mallorca to assess hazard and risk posed by rockfall at regional scale to design the road management plan