Size fluctuation in energy demand for the electric market: the effect of renewable sources

The increasing attention to environmental issues are forcing the implementation of novel energy models based on renewable sources. However, the stochastic components associated to renewable energies are connected to an increased usage of conventional energy sources oriented to balance energy requests on short notices. In this paper we present a microscopic model for the description and the forecast of size of energy unbalances. We take into account the inter-dependencies of the energy unbalances from the power dispatch along the physical network by Monte Carlo samplingthe stochastic perturbations on the energy production while considering also the constrains of the actual power system. Our model is data-driven and builds on the one day ahead real market transactions that we use to predict the expected energy volumes; we successfully benchmark our approach in the Italian case.