Vulnerability assessment for food crisis management in the Sahel region

In the Sahel region the unfavourable climatic conditions and the natural resources degradation are recognised to be the main constraints affecting the agricultural productivity; nevertheless more complex and less evident causes of food insecurity of population groups need to be investigated. The analysis of biophysics and socio-economic dynamics acting in disadvantage areas is considered a basic element to put in action effective programs for the prevention and management of food crisis. The availability of effective and timely information during the development of agricultural season is strategic for the evaluation of famine warning level: it constitutes a support to the planning activity of decision makers. In this context a schedule for food crisis prediction has been designed as an operational framework enabling to integrate different tools to produce appropriate information to define and monitoring the risk zones during the whole agro-pastoral season. The spatial extension and the importance of the population touched can be timely estimated in order to define the action plans to minimize the crisis damage. An analysis module, a plugin of the free Geographic Information System VisualCarte, has been developed aiming at increasing the Sahelian National Services' responsibility in emergencies management and at encouraging their involvement in the long-term resources planning for crisis prevention. The plugin PRVS (Structural Vulnerability Mapping Procedures) enables the elaboration of thematic maps through indicators of vulnerability and the creation of scenarios about the current vulnerability. A structural frame of reference for the identification of vulnerable zones and populations at regional and national level is made available: homogeneous areas and administrative units are classified according to theirs productive capacity related to the economic structure of productive system. As consequence the monitoring of negative events can include their evaluation according to the incidence in the context of structural vulnerability. The plugin PRVS can process different data type. The use of real or estimated data allows to assess the impact of unfavourable conditions on the primary productivity during the rain fed season. The estimation of the capability of the primary sector to sustain a given population leads to the identification of self-sufficient, surplus or deficit areas. By means of integrated analyses tools and seasonal forecast, the early assessment of current vulnerability may occur. The continuous availability of reliable information for the mapping of vulnerability satisfy the needs of the various institutions involved in crisis prevention and natural resource management. The work described in this paper has been conducted by Ibimet - CNR in collaboration with Agrhymet Regional Center within the SVS (Suivi de la Vulnérabilité au Sahel) project funded by Italian Cooperation. The program's objective is the strengthening of regional and national capacities of CILSS countries (Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel) in the crisis prevention and in the poverty reduction. Methodologies for vulnerability analyses have been pointed out to support different users with appropriate information. Furthermore environmental monitoring for the assessment of zoning associated with climate change is also included in the objective of the program. © 2005 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.