Making a prognosis is to predict the course of a disease and estimate the probability (or risk) of the appearance of a given outcome in relationship to clinical or non-clinical characteristics. Prognostic assessment is usually modelled by multivariable mathematic equations (prognostic models). In this article we describe what a prognostic model is, how to build a good one, why and how it is important to evaluate its generalizability and accuracy by means of discrimination, calibration and reclassification. ©2012, Editrice Kurtis.
Prognostic models in the clinical arena
Bolignano Davide;Torino Claudia;D'Arrigo Graziella;Zoccali Carmine;Tripepi Giovanni
2012
Abstract
Making a prognosis is to predict the course of a disease and estimate the probability (or risk) of the appearance of a given outcome in relationship to clinical or non-clinical characteristics. Prognostic assessment is usually modelled by multivariable mathematic equations (prognostic models). In this article we describe what a prognostic model is, how to build a good one, why and how it is important to evaluate its generalizability and accuracy by means of discrimination, calibration and reclassification. ©2012, Editrice Kurtis.File in questo prodotto:
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