Mapping Changes in Area and the Cropping Season of Irrigated Rice in Senegal and Mauritania between 2003 and 2014 Using the PhenoRice Algorithm and MODIS Imagery

Government policies have resulted in rapid expansion of irrigated rice area in Mauritania and Senegal through private and public investments. Farmers switch rice cultivation from the wet to the dry season to achieve higher production while rice double cropping is increasingly practiced. As a result Senegal is close to attaining self-sufficiency in the coming years. However, tools to monitor those changes are absent and this inhibits assessments on for example its impact on wetlands located in the delta area, increased water demands and climate induced risks to farmers. In this study we aimed to map changes in irrigated rice area in the wet and dry seasons. We applied the PhenoRice algorithm on a combined time-series of MODIS Aqua and Terra images obtained between 2003 and 2016 to map pixels dominated by rice and determine the start, end and length of the growing season from sowing/transplanting to maturity. Between 2002 and 2010 researchers from the Africa Rice Center interviewed annually around 100 rice farmers located in two irrigation schemes in Senegal. We extracted the reported sowing/transplanting and harvest dates from the data base and used these to validate the estimates obtained by PhenoRice. We also compared the obtained rice areas with official statistics provided by the Senegalese Ministry of Agriculture. Analysis of PhenoRice results highlighted that starting 2008, rice farmers cultivate also during the dry season; the area is steadily increasing from 2008 onwards and in the recent years approximately almost equals that of the wet season. This was confirmed by official statistics, though the total area estimated by PhenoRice is smaller than reported, most likely due to the mismatch between pixel size and the small cultivated areas. However, the algorithm was able to detect the overall trends and inter-annual variations observed in the wet (r2=0.57) and dry season rice cultivated area (r2=0.91). The start of the season, that varied maximally 4 weeks between years, was captured with high accuracy. No significant changes in the onset of the growing season were detected. However, the length of the growing season was found to be steadily decreasing from 121 days in 2003 to 114 days in 2016 (r2 = 0.67). This is likely due to varietal improvement and preference of farmers for short duration varieties to allow double cropping.