Precipitation spatial variability and dry areas temporal stability for different elevation classes in the Macta basin (Algeria)

The water availability relies primarily on precipitation whose spatial and temporal variability depends on meteorological and topographic attributes. Water becomes a precious natural resource, especially in semiarid areas. Generally, decisions on water resources are made on the whole watershed, but the variability of precipitation is related to topography. The work was aimed at quantifying the spatial variability of annual precipitation for a 40-year-long time series in the Macta basin (Algeria) by using a geostatistical approach and to detect the temporal stability of dry areas. To assess if annual precipitation variability could depend upon the elevation, the study area was divided into five geographical units (polygons) based on elevation and polygon kriging was applied. For each hydrologic year, the standardized relative difference of precipitation (SRDP) was evaluated and dry areas identified. The temporal stability of SRDP with elevation was assessed using the Spearman rank coefficient. Geostatistical approach showed different variability structures of annual precipitation over the considered period. Results highlighted differences in SRDP within the geographical units located at different elevation and the non-stability of dry periods with time within the same polygon. A remarkable dry tendency was assessed in the northern polygon, while the polygons at higher elevations were dominated by temporal instability. The spatio-temporal non-stability of dry areas might be attributed to the change in general atmospheric circulation in North Africa over the last decades and to the nonlinear interaction among precipitation and orography. The identification of dry areas can help decision-makers to plan management and conservation programs in Algeria.