The "Danse Macabre" among climatic variability, famines and epidemics in Northern Italy during the 15th and 16th centuries: an overview through documentary sources

The level of society's vulnerability is one of the key factor determining the complex interplay between climatic conditions, famines and epidemics. In the past, the society was extremely exposed to climatic events, not only to the extreme ones, but also to any sudden change and unexpected meteorological phenomenon. Many other non-environmental factors, such as war, social structure, transportation, policies and so forth, played an important role in creating and shaping the characteristics of food shortages and epidemic diseases. For example, transportation was difficult and often risky, food preservation methodologies were quite inefficient and artificial irrigation very uncommon. At the same time, the poor hygienic conditions on one side and the human vulnerability on the other could facilitate, especially in case of starvation, the outbreak and the subsequent development of epidemic diseases. This paper intends to give an overall picture of the relation between climatic variability, and the occurrence of food shortages and epidemic diseases during the 15th and 16th centuries in Northern Italy. This area has been selected as a case study mainly according to the completeness and reliability of the historical sources available. A general coherence between climate, famines and epidemics has been documented, even if their specific relation is strongly linked to the location considered because of the peculiar geography of the Italian peninsula. The most important and widespread famines were almost always related to climatic events, mainly to rain, followed by cold and flood. The period 1440-1540 is characterized by a greater density of occurrence of both food shortages and epidemic diseases, whose causal relation was documented in both directions. They can also be related to climatic events occurring in the same years.