Introduction On September 26th 1976, in Manfredonia, Italy, a mixture containing arsenic compounds was released into the atmosphere due to an accident in a fertilizer production plant. 40 years later, the municipality promoted an epidemiological programme to investigate possible long-term health effects in the population. Aim of this work is to estimate population exposure to arsenic, taking into account uncertainties on the accident dynamics by using a dispersion model with different setup initial conditions. Methods Contaminant dispersion was estimated with the CALPUFF model initialized with a meteorological model. Meteorological data were not available at the plant location but only at two Air Force weather stations, a few kilometers away. Evaluation of the meteorological model was performed with data available on the same day and with data available in later years in similar synoptic conditions. Different hypothesis on puff vertical release, puff status and composition were assumed from direct testimonies, documental and literature information. We used measured arsenic deposition in soils around the town to test the model inputs. Results Meteorological model during the accident evidences complex mountain/sea breeze circulations under high-pressure synoptic conditions. It matches the nearby meteorological station records. Results indicate that the model is capable to reproduce the mean flow and dispersion with some uncertainties due to the hypothesis on the release characterization. Conclusions For the first time an up-to-date dispersion model was used and integrated with environmental data, testimonies and proxies to assess the population exposure during the Manfredonia accident. Uncertainties of results should be taken into account in the epidemiological study. The case study confirms the need to collect data on concentration and dispersion of released chemicals during the early phase of an accident, considering the difficulties in collecting them in a late phase.
Modelling population exposure to arsenic release during the chemical accident occurred at Manfredonia (Italy) in 1976
Cristina Mangia;Marco Cervino;Antonella Bruni;Emilio Antonio Luca Gianicolo;
2016
Abstract
Introduction On September 26th 1976, in Manfredonia, Italy, a mixture containing arsenic compounds was released into the atmosphere due to an accident in a fertilizer production plant. 40 years later, the municipality promoted an epidemiological programme to investigate possible long-term health effects in the population. Aim of this work is to estimate population exposure to arsenic, taking into account uncertainties on the accident dynamics by using a dispersion model with different setup initial conditions. Methods Contaminant dispersion was estimated with the CALPUFF model initialized with a meteorological model. Meteorological data were not available at the plant location but only at two Air Force weather stations, a few kilometers away. Evaluation of the meteorological model was performed with data available on the same day and with data available in later years in similar synoptic conditions. Different hypothesis on puff vertical release, puff status and composition were assumed from direct testimonies, documental and literature information. We used measured arsenic deposition in soils around the town to test the model inputs. Results Meteorological model during the accident evidences complex mountain/sea breeze circulations under high-pressure synoptic conditions. It matches the nearby meteorological station records. Results indicate that the model is capable to reproduce the mean flow and dispersion with some uncertainties due to the hypothesis on the release characterization. Conclusions For the first time an up-to-date dispersion model was used and integrated with environmental data, testimonies and proxies to assess the population exposure during the Manfredonia accident. Uncertainties of results should be taken into account in the epidemiological study. The case study confirms the need to collect data on concentration and dispersion of released chemicals during the early phase of an accident, considering the difficulties in collecting them in a late phase.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
