Longitudinal Asthma Patterns in Italian Adult General Population Samples: Host and Environmental Risk Factors

Background: Asthma patterns are not well established in epidemiological studies. Aim: To assess asthma patterns and risk factors in an adult general population sample. Methods: In total, 452 individuals reporting asthma symptoms/diagnosis in previous surveys participated in the AGAVE survey (2011-2014). Latent transition analysis (LTA) was performed to detect baseline and 12-month follow-up asthma phenotypes and longitudinal patterns. Risk factors associated with longitudinal patterns were assessed through multinomial logistic regression. Results: LTA detected four longitudinal patterns: persistent asthma diagnosis with symptoms, 27.2%; persistent asthma diagnosis without symptoms, 4.6%; persistent asthma symptoms without diagnosis, 44.0%; and ex -asthma, 24.1%. The longitudinal patterns were differently associated with asthma comorbidities. Persistent asthma diagnosis with symptoms showed associations with passive smoke (OR 2.64, 95% CI 1.10-6.33) and traffic exposure (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.02 3.38), while persistent asthma symptoms (without diagnosis) with passive smoke (OR 3.28, 95% CI 1.41-7.66) and active smoke (OR 6.24, 95% CI 2.68-14.51). Conclusions: LTA identified three cross-sectional phenotypes and their four longitudinal patterns in a real-life setting. The results highlight the necessity of a careful monitoring of exposure to active/passive smoke and vehicular traffic, possible determinants of occurrence of asthma symptoms (with or without diagnosis). Such information could help affected patients and physicians in prevention and management strategies.