Seismic Hazard Analysis for Southern Slope of the Greater Caucasus (Azerbaijan)

In this paper seismic hazard for the sourthern slope of the Greater Caucasus (Azerbaijan) was assessed by using five major parameters: moment magnitude, simulated peak ground acceleration (PGA) from four target earthquakes, intensity scenario, amplification factor and b value. The deterministic scenario-based seismic hazard assessment method was applied by using the seismic catalogues compiled by the Republican Center of Seismological Survey at Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences. Additionally this study presents hazard assessment analysis on 67 active faults tracing in the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus, considering the fault's location, size and length, and calculating the magnitude for those faults and lineaments estimated by empirical correlations. Our findings are: (1) maximum earthquake of Mw 8.0 is estimated for the western area zone and is used to generate one of the seismic scenarios of the region; (2) intensity distribution classifies the region into the highest hazard level with intensity value of 7 and over in the westward part and also in the eastward of the studied territory, in contrast to some areas in the southern part of the region which has the lowest level with intensity value of 6 and over; (3) the b value distribution shows that lower values are observed in the western part of the region (Zagatala, Sheki), in the Shamakhi area and on some areas of the northern part indicating higher stress in those areas; (4) PGA map from scenario earthquakes demonstrates that the very high PGAs are scattered in the west and east parts of the study area, while independently from the epicenter of the target earthquakes, the low and very low PGA is scattered in the central part of the study area. Such seismic hazard analysis with consideration of one of the main five parameters and target earthquake scenarios could help the region's sustainable development against earthquakes.