In November 1966, without warning, Venice was hit by the most serious flood ever recorded in its history (+194 cm). The rare combination of several adverse weather conditions, led to prolonged gusts of south-east wind (Scirocco), powerful swells in the northern part of the Adriatic Sea in front of Venice lagoon, and to powerful storm waves. Starting from the meteorological data of that time, the article aims to revisit the forecasts according to modern modelling tools (ECMWF). Although the lack of complete data, results demonstrate that modern forecast tools would have been able to predict such disasters, raising the alarm at least six days early. The article also stands that, despite the extensive damages to cultural and economic heritage, the severe event could have plagued Venice heavier in case of higher astronomical tide. Future challenges deal with a sea level rise at 2100 ranging from 0,3 to 0,6 m, up to 1 m. Artificial mobile dams (MOSE) could protect Venice only in the early period but they do not represent a long term solution.
L'eccezionale acqua alta del novembre 1q966 a Venezia
Luigi Cavaleri
2017
Abstract
In November 1966, without warning, Venice was hit by the most serious flood ever recorded in its history (+194 cm). The rare combination of several adverse weather conditions, led to prolonged gusts of south-east wind (Scirocco), powerful swells in the northern part of the Adriatic Sea in front of Venice lagoon, and to powerful storm waves. Starting from the meteorological data of that time, the article aims to revisit the forecasts according to modern modelling tools (ECMWF). Although the lack of complete data, results demonstrate that modern forecast tools would have been able to predict such disasters, raising the alarm at least six days early. The article also stands that, despite the extensive damages to cultural and economic heritage, the severe event could have plagued Venice heavier in case of higher astronomical tide. Future challenges deal with a sea level rise at 2100 ranging from 0,3 to 0,6 m, up to 1 m. Artificial mobile dams (MOSE) could protect Venice only in the early period but they do not represent a long term solution.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.


