Planning Landslide Countermeasure Works through Long Term Monitoring and Grey Box Modelling

The design of countermeasure works to mitigate landslide risk needs to deal with the multiple unknowns that are linked with soil properties, distribution and rheology. Most of the time, the degree of definition of all these elements is low. Through landslide monitoring, it is possible to acquire signals from the landslide that carry synthetic information about its dynamic. Thus, if it is possible to define a model that is able to link the landslide displacements with the triggering factors and to predict them consistently, that model may be used to evaluate the effect of a countermeasure work directly, bypassing the geomechanical uncertainty. In this paper, an example application of this approach is described. The displacements of a landslide located in North East Italy are connected with the water discharge of the small stream the crosses the landslide body. A countermeasure work that intercepts the discharge of the torrent is expected to reduce the landslide displacements of approximately 70%, with lower costs of construction and smaller impacts on the environment and landscape with respect of other types of structural mitigation works such as slope reprofiling and large retaining walls.