Mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the World: a multidisciplinary strategy for the Neapolitan area

Neapolitan volcanic area is by far the highest volcanic risk one in the World, due to the presence of three active volcanic areas (Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, Ischia) with an extreme population density: three million people live within 20 km from a possible volcanic vent. Volcanic risk in these areas is strictly associated to seismic risk, and to other secondary risks as landslides and flooding (De Natale et al., 2019; 2020). The mitigation of such an extreme risk can only be afforded by considering volcanological, as well as economical, urban and social issues. All these highly multidisciplinary aspects must be jointly recognized and shared by both volcanologists and decision makers, in a global, effective risk reduction policy. We start considering the very high number of people living in the 'red zones' (the riskiest areas, in terms of the actual emergency plans) of Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, and the economic losses linked to a complete evacuation of these areas. We then demonstrate, from volcanological considerations, that evacuated people could not come back in the red zones in short times, but rather after years or decades, perhaps never again. From such basic considerations, we proceed to propose a multidisciplinary, effective mitigation strategy and emergency planning, which can significantly decrease the volcanic and associated risks in the area and to make effectively feasible and sustainable an evacuation, in case of high probability for an impending eruption. The proposed strategy also uses the most advanced Artificial Intelligence methodologies to plan an optimal, complete relocation of the population living in the riskiest areas, in case of sudden as well as progressive evacuation. In addition, our mitigation strategy takes into account other key demographic and economic issues: problems affecting several internal areas of Southern Italy, which can help to handle the problem of risk mitigation, and to possibly jointly solve them. The methodological approach mainly used is qualitative-quantitative and will be substantially based on the analysis of case studies and best practices. A particularly important aspect of the work presented, which is characterized by its originality of its kind, is represented by the economic-financial and insurance dimension of the Volcanic Emergency Plans that in Campania are one of the thorniest issues, scientifically, technically and politically of the last 35 years. In this context, the expected results will be of an original nature and will mainly concern: 1) the advancement of knowledge on relations between enterprises using modern technology and the world of public research; 2) the distinction and distribution by type of risk and geographical area of the most frequent catastrophic events. The proposed work is part of a multidisciplinary research strand within the CNR-IRISS in Naples called "Innovation of insurance services in the management of catastrophic risks", as well as specific research projects of INGV, ENEA, SEMEION, Regione Campania and other public and private research bodies. The research aims to explore these opportunities for innovative interpretation also of the risk management phenomenon, understood as the governance of pure or insurable risks, in a dynamic perspective, by developing a theoretical framework derived from the literature that is based on the characteristics based approach and, at the same time, to provide a contribution to the companies involved engaged in the process of organizational innovation. The proposed work also aims to intercept converging trends, highlighting how the two phenomena - innovation and risk management - can be managed more effectively in a coordinated manner.