A tecnologia está avançando rapidamente e as inovações florestais estão cada vez mais integradas às operações silviculturais, como a talhadia, colheita e processamento. O objetivo deste estudo foi de identificar tecnologias de condução florestal que serão importantes de 2018 até 2040, além de prever a data em que 50$ das tecnologias serão adotadas em novos equipamentos. A metodologia Delphi foi utilizada para obter, sistematicamente, a opinião de especialistas sobre a probabilidade de as novas tecnologias serem adotadas nas operações florestais. O processo envolveu a distribuição de um questionário a 24 especialistas em silvicultura de florestas plantadas. Os resultados do Delphy revelaram que o desenvolvimento de tecnologias futuras seria direcionado a quatro grandes áreas: (i) desenvolvimento de máquinas (ii) novos materiais (iii) aperfeiçoamento nos operadores de máquinas (iv) adoção de tecnologias computadorizadas. Dentro dessas grandes áreas, 18 tecnologias específicas foram identificadas e previstas. Quinze tecnologias foram previstas para atingir 50% de adoção até 2025 e, uma tecnologia foi identificada como já adotada. Duas tecnologias foram identificadas como altamente improváveis de serem implementadas no futuro. A previsão de futuros avanços tecnológicos na condução florestal é importante porque permite aos produtores, planejar, elaborar e tomar decisões num futuro com incertezas ambientais.
Technology is rapidly advancing and in forestry new innovations are increasingly being integrated into operations such as silviculture re-establishment (regeneration), harvesting and processing. The goal of this study was to identify eucalypt re-establishment technologies which will become important from 2018 to 2040 and to forecast the date on to when 50% of the technologies would be adopted in new forest machinery. The Delphi technique was used to systematically elicit expert opinion on possible future re-establishment technologies which have the highest probability of being adopted in operations. The process involved the distribution of a questionnaire to 24 experts in the field of silviculture re-establishment in plantation forestry. Results from the Delphi revealed that future technology development in re-establishment would be directed to four main areas, namely: (i) machine development (ii) material input innovations (iii) machine operator advances and (iv) computerized technology applications. Within these broad technology areas, 18 specific technologies were identified and forecasted. 15 technologies were forecasted to reach 50% adoption by 2025 and one technology was identified as already adopted. Two technologies were identified as highly unlikely to be adopted in future. Forecasting future technological advances in re-establishment is important because it enables forest growers to plan, strategize and take decisions to deal with future changing environments.
A forecast of future silviculture re-establishment technologies in plantation forestry
Spinelli R;
2021
Abstract
Technology is rapidly advancing and in forestry new innovations are increasingly being integrated into operations such as silviculture re-establishment (regeneration), harvesting and processing. The goal of this study was to identify eucalypt re-establishment technologies which will become important from 2018 to 2040 and to forecast the date on to when 50% of the technologies would be adopted in new forest machinery. The Delphi technique was used to systematically elicit expert opinion on possible future re-establishment technologies which have the highest probability of being adopted in operations. The process involved the distribution of a questionnaire to 24 experts in the field of silviculture re-establishment in plantation forestry. Results from the Delphi revealed that future technology development in re-establishment would be directed to four main areas, namely: (i) machine development (ii) material input innovations (iii) machine operator advances and (iv) computerized technology applications. Within these broad technology areas, 18 specific technologies were identified and forecasted. 15 technologies were forecasted to reach 50% adoption by 2025 and one technology was identified as already adopted. Two technologies were identified as highly unlikely to be adopted in future. Forecasting future technological advances in re-establishment is important because it enables forest growers to plan, strategize and take decisions to deal with future changing environments.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.