Seasonal rainfall trends of a key Mediterranean area in relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation: How does current global change affect the rainfall regime?

Current global warming causes a change in atmospheric dynamics, with consequent variations in the rainfall regimes. Understanding the relationship between global climate patterns, global warming, and rainfall regimes is crucial for the creation of future scenarios and for the relative modification of water management. The aim of this study is to improve knowledge of the relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic (EA), and Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO) with the seasonal rainfalls in Tuscany, Italy. The study area occupies a strategic position since it lies in a transition zone between the wet area of northern Europe and the dry area of the northern coast of Africa. This research, based on a statistical correlation method and on linear models, is designed to understand the relationship between seasonal rainfalls and climate patterns. The results of this study demonstrate that the use of linear models can yield more information than traditional statistical correlations. The results show a decrease in rainfall in the warm period of the year, namely in the summer, when its expression is most visible. This phenomenon is ascribable to current global warming, which causes an increase in sea-surface temperatures. An increase in the Northern Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and in the Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature causes a reduction of the Iceland Low, with an extension of the Azores High. Moreover, an increase in the Genoa Gulf SST induces a weakening of the Genoa Gulf Low, one of the main cyclogenetic systems of the Mediterranean.