Orographic impact on extreme subdaily precipitation is critical for risk management but remains insufficiently understood due to complicated atmosphere-orography interactions and large uncertainties. We investigate the problem adopting a framework able to reduce uncertainties and isolate the systematic interaction of Mediterranean cyclones with a regular orographic barrier. The average decrease with elevation reported for hourly extremes is found enhanced at subhourly durations. Tail heaviness of 10-min intensities is negligibly affected by orography, suggesting self-similarity of the distributions at the convective scale. Orography decreases the tail heaviness at longer durations, with a maximum impact around hourly scales. These observations are explained by an orographically induced redistribution of precipitation toward stratiform-like processes, and by the succession of convective cores in multihour extremes. Our results imply a breaking of scale-invariance at subhourly durations, with important implications for natural hazards management in mountainous areas.
Orographic effect on extreme precipitation statistics peaks at hourly time scales
Marra F;
2021
Abstract
Orographic impact on extreme subdaily precipitation is critical for risk management but remains insufficiently understood due to complicated atmosphere-orography interactions and large uncertainties. We investigate the problem adopting a framework able to reduce uncertainties and isolate the systematic interaction of Mediterranean cyclones with a regular orographic barrier. The average decrease with elevation reported for hourly extremes is found enhanced at subhourly durations. Tail heaviness of 10-min intensities is negligibly affected by orography, suggesting self-similarity of the distributions at the convective scale. Orography decreases the tail heaviness at longer durations, with a maximum impact around hourly scales. These observations are explained by an orographically induced redistribution of precipitation toward stratiform-like processes, and by the succession of convective cores in multihour extremes. Our results imply a breaking of scale-invariance at subhourly durations, with important implications for natural hazards management in mountainous areas.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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Geophysical Research Letters - 2021 - Marra - Orographic Effect on Extreme Precipitation Statistics Peaks at Hourly Time.pdf
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