The transition toward a decarbonized economy is one of the priority objectives of national and European policies on climate and energy to tackle the issues arising from climate change. In order to contain global warming due to climate change within 2° C, the European Council identified the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 as fundamental target of the European Union. Each Member State have to give its own contribution, identifying in particular appropriate national policies in terms of the implementation of renewable energy sources and measures of high energy efficiency. These results could become more effective with a strong involvement of local governments, and therefore with a bottom up approach based on a strong collaboration and a sharing of energy policies between the central government and the local authorities. Partial equilibrium TIMES-generated models (the integrated MARKAL-EFOM system) are useful tools to individuate the best mix of technologies for energy production and of energy end-use devices, taking into account particular exogenous constraints through an optimization process that permit to identify the least cost-effective solution. The aim of this study is to analyse the energy system of the Basilicata region, localized in the Southern Italy, on the time horizon 2007-2050, and evaluate the change of energy systems with introduction of external constraints. In particular, two alternative scenarios have been implemented according the objectives of European Union Energy roadmap to 2050: the Decarbonisation scenario and the High Energy Efficiency (HEE) scenario. In the Decarbonisation scenario, a CO2 emissions reduction of 85% by 2050 compared with 1990 values is imposed to analyse the evolutions of energy system under the introduction of a strong environmental constraint, introducing also intermediate reduction rates of 40% and 60%, respectively in 2030 and 2040. In the High Energy Efficiency scenario, specific targets for increasing energy efficiency have been introduced such as the reduction of losses in the electricity distribution system and the use of high efficiency technologies in the final use sectors. The obtained results highlighted the best-suited mix of technologies and fuels to the achievement of the prefixed targets and how the end-use sectors can contribute to the achievement of a low-carbon economy.
Scenario analysis of the future energy system of Basilicata region based on the TIMES model
Di Leo S;Pietrapertosa F;Salvia M;Cosmi C
2018
Abstract
The transition toward a decarbonized economy is one of the priority objectives of national and European policies on climate and energy to tackle the issues arising from climate change. In order to contain global warming due to climate change within 2° C, the European Council identified the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 as fundamental target of the European Union. Each Member State have to give its own contribution, identifying in particular appropriate national policies in terms of the implementation of renewable energy sources and measures of high energy efficiency. These results could become more effective with a strong involvement of local governments, and therefore with a bottom up approach based on a strong collaboration and a sharing of energy policies between the central government and the local authorities. Partial equilibrium TIMES-generated models (the integrated MARKAL-EFOM system) are useful tools to individuate the best mix of technologies for energy production and of energy end-use devices, taking into account particular exogenous constraints through an optimization process that permit to identify the least cost-effective solution. The aim of this study is to analyse the energy system of the Basilicata region, localized in the Southern Italy, on the time horizon 2007-2050, and evaluate the change of energy systems with introduction of external constraints. In particular, two alternative scenarios have been implemented according the objectives of European Union Energy roadmap to 2050: the Decarbonisation scenario and the High Energy Efficiency (HEE) scenario. In the Decarbonisation scenario, a CO2 emissions reduction of 85% by 2050 compared with 1990 values is imposed to analyse the evolutions of energy system under the introduction of a strong environmental constraint, introducing also intermediate reduction rates of 40% and 60%, respectively in 2030 and 2040. In the High Energy Efficiency scenario, specific targets for increasing energy efficiency have been introduced such as the reduction of losses in the electricity distribution system and the use of high efficiency technologies in the final use sectors. The obtained results highlighted the best-suited mix of technologies and fuels to the achievement of the prefixed targets and how the end-use sectors can contribute to the achievement of a low-carbon economy.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
