Ship operational safety is most frequently addressed from a statistical point of view, making reference to probabilistic measures of ship motions and/or wave characteristics. However, in the recent years, thanks to the technological advances in wave sensing, complementary approaches, based on the deterministic forecasting of wave elevation and ship motions, have been developed. Nevertheless, deterministic wave forecasting approaches are still lacking an associated sound measure of the prediction uncertainty. In trying to contribute filling this identified gap, a theoretically consistent measure of prediction error is developed in thiswork, starting only from fundamental assumptions about the water wave elevation field and the employed phase-resolved wave prediction model. Specifically, assuming linear wave theory and gaussianity of the wave elevation field, a Linear Estimator of Prediction Error (LEPrE) is derived. Some example applications are reported where the developed approach is applied and verified.

Quantifying error in deterministic predictions based on phase-resolved linear wave models

Lugni C
2017

Abstract

Ship operational safety is most frequently addressed from a statistical point of view, making reference to probabilistic measures of ship motions and/or wave characteristics. However, in the recent years, thanks to the technological advances in wave sensing, complementary approaches, based on the deterministic forecasting of wave elevation and ship motions, have been developed. Nevertheless, deterministic wave forecasting approaches are still lacking an associated sound measure of the prediction uncertainty. In trying to contribute filling this identified gap, a theoretically consistent measure of prediction error is developed in thiswork, starting only from fundamental assumptions about the water wave elevation field and the employed phase-resolved wave prediction model. Specifically, assuming linear wave theory and gaussianity of the wave elevation field, a Linear Estimator of Prediction Error (LEPrE) is derived. Some example applications are reported where the developed approach is applied and verified.
2017
Istituto di iNgegneria del Mare - INM (ex INSEAN)
978-1-138-02997-2
wave model
wave forecasting
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14243/428708
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 2
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 1
social impact