Assessing the impact of wildfires on water quality using satellite remote sensing: the Lake Baikal case study.

Lakes have been observed as sentinels of climate change. In the last decades, global warming and increasing aridity has led to an increase in both the number and severity of wildfires. This has a negative impact on lake catchments by reducing forest cover and triggering cascading effects in freshwater ecosystems. In this work we used satellite remote sensing to analyse potential fire effects on lake water quality of Lake Baikal (Russia), considering the role of runoff and sediment transport, a less studied pathway compared to fire emissions transport. The main objectives of this study were to analyse time series and investigate relationships among fires (i.e., burned area), meteo-climatic parameters and water quality variables (chlorophyll-a, turbidity) for the period 2003-2020. Because Lake Baikal is oligotrophic, we expected detectable changes in water quality variables at selected areas near the three mains tributaries (Upper Angara, Barguzin, Selenga) due to river transport of fire-derived burned material and nutrients. Time series analysis showed seasonal (from April to June) and interannual fire occurrence, precipitation patterns (high intensity in summer) and no significant temporal changes for water quality variables during the studied periods. The most severe wildfires occurred in 2003 with the highest burned area detected (36,767 km2). The three lake sub-basins investigated have shown to respond differently according to their morphology, land cover types and meteoclimatic conditions, indicating their importance in determining the response of water variables to the impact of fires. Overall, our finding suggests that Lake Baikal shows resilience in the medium-long term to potential effects of fires and climate change in the region.