An Alternative Approach for Predicting the Shelf Life of Energetic Materials

The shelf life of energetic materials (EMs) is directly associated with safety and functionality. Therefore, a priori knowledge of this parameter is essential. The standard approach for predicting the shelf life of EMs is tremendously time and money consuming. It involves massive accelerated aging tests at temperatures typically between 40 and 80 °C for relatively long time periods--from months to years--with different aging time intervals, followed by analysis of the aging-induced changes. A subsequent kinetic analysis with Arrhenius evaluation provides the effective activation energy for calculating shelf life at lower storage temperatures. In this work, a much less time- and resource-intensive approach based on the kinetic analysis of decomposition data gathered by using thermal analysis techniques is discussed as a possible alternative for the shelf life prediction of EMs. The discussion is placed in the context of the few but promising works of literature on the subject that provide evidence and examples. On the path towards the practical application of this approach, the definition of procedures that allow for a realistic simulation of storage conditions not only in the accelerated aging tests--still needed but limited to the validation of the decomposition kinetics--but also in the thermal analysis experiments is highlighted as one of the main issues to be addressed. © 2023 by the authors.