A geometric framework for query performance prediction in conversational search

Thanks to recent advances in IR and NLP, the way users interact with search engines is evolving rapidly, with multi-turn conversations replacing traditional one-shot textual queries. Given its interactive nature, Conversational Search (CS) is one of the scenarios that can benefit the most from Query Performance Prediction (QPP) techniques. QPP for the CS domain is a relatively new field and lacks proper framing. In this study, we address this gap by proposing a framework for the application of QPP in the CS domain and use it to evaluate the performance of predictors. We characterize what it means to predict the performance in the CS scenario, where information needs are not independent queries but a series of closely related utterances. We identify three main ways to use QPP models in the CS domain: as a diagnostic tool, as a way to adjust the system's behaviour during a conversation, or as a way to predict the system's performance on the next utterance. Due to the lack of established evaluation procedures for QPP in the CS domain, we propose a protocol to evaluate QPPs for each of the use cases. Additionally, we introduce a set of spatial-based QPP models designed to work the best in the conversational search domain, where dense neural retrieval models are the most common approaches and query cutoffs are typically small. We show how the proposed QPP approaches improve significantly the predictive performance over the state-of-the-art in different scenarios and collections.