Climate change scenarios of minimum, maximum temperature and precipitation over Italian areas, period 2021-2050

Climate change scenarios of seasonal minimum, maximum temperature and precipitation over different Italian areas, during the period 2021-2050 against 1961-1990, are assessed. The areas are those selected in the framework of the AGROSCENARI project and are represented by: Padano-Veneta plain, Marche, Beneventano, Destra Sele, Oristano, Puglia and Sicilia, being areas with an important impact for local agricultural practises. A statistical downscaling technique applied to ENSEMBLES global climate simulations (STREAM1), scenario A1B, is used in order to reach this objective. The statistical scheme consists of a multivariate regression based on Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCAReg). The scheme is constructed using large scale fields (predictors) derived from ERA40 ECMWF reanalysis and seasonal mean minimum, maximum temperature and precipitation (predictands) derived from observed daily gridded data (resolution around 35km) belonging to CRA-CMA. The observed period used to set-up the statistical downscaling scheme is 1958-2002. Once the most skilful model has been selected for each season and variables, this is then applied to the predictors derived from the ENSEMBLES models experiments, A1B scenario, in order to construct climate change scenario at grid point level over the period 2021-2050 with respect to 1961-1990. The results show that an increase of around 1.5°C could be expected to occur under A1B scenario conditions in all seasons, both in minimum and maximum temperatures. As regards precipitation, the signal is more complex and varies in function of season and region. A reduction of precipitation could be expected to occur especially during summer seasons, more pronounced over areas from the central and southern part of the Italian peninsula.