Modelling how negative plant–soil feedbacks across life stages affect the spatial patterning of trees

In this work, we theoretically explore how litter decomposition processes and soil-borne pathogens contribute to negative plant–soil feedbacks, in particular in transient and stable spatial organisation of tropical forest trees and seedlings known as Janzen-Connell distributions. By considering soil-borne pathogens and autotoxicity both separately and in combination in a phenomenological model, we can study how both factors may affect transient dynamics and emerging Janzen–Connell distributions. We also identify parameter regimes associated with different long-term behaviours. Moreover, we compare how the strength of negative plant–soil feedbacks was mediated by tree germination and growth strategies, using a combination of analytical approaches and numerical simulations. Our interdisciplinary investigation, motivated by an ecological question, allows us to construct important links between local feedbacks, spatial self-organisation, and community assembly. Our model analyses contribute to understanding the drivers of biodiversity in tropical ecosystems, by disentangling the abilities of two potential mechanisms to generate Janzen-Connell distributions. Furthermore, our theoretical results may help guiding future field data analyses by identifying spatial signatures in adult tree and seedling distribution data that may reflect the presence of particular plant–soil feedback mechanisms.