Modelling current and future potential distributions of two desert jerboas under climate change in Iran

Species distribution models (SDMs) are excellent tools to understand the factors that affect the potential distribution of several organisms at different scale. In this study, we analyzed the current potential distribution of the Blanford's Jerboa Jaculus blanfordi and the Arabian Jerboa Jaculus loftusi (Mammalia: Rodentia) in Iran and predicted the impact of climate change on their future potential distributions using two different modelling software packages: Maxent and sdm. Our results showed that precipitation was the most important variable affecting the potential distributions of J. blanfordi and J. loftusi in Iran. We also showed that the potential distributions of the two jerboas species are unlikely to be affected by climate change. All our models showed high levels of predictive performances. Thus, SDMs are a promising tool to complement data from laboratory and field studies to illuminate the biology and ecology of jerboa and inform management decisions.